What really is the Adjacent Possible?

Introduction to the (Shadow) Future

The concept of the adjacent possible represents one of the most profound frameworks for understanding how change, innovation, and evolution occur across all domains of existence, from the chemical foundations of life to the complex socio-technical systems of the modern world.

Originally formulated by theoretical biologist Stuart Kauffman and later popularized by media theorist Steven Johnson, the adjacent possible describes a "shadow future" that exists on the edges of the present state of things, representing a map of all the ways in which the current reality can reinvent itself. 

It is not an infinite space where anything can happen; rather, it is a strictly bounded set of possibilities that are exactly one step away from the current configuration of a system. 

In the context of nature-inspired innovation, such as biomimicry, biophilic design, and bioremediation, the adjacent possible functions as the regenerative frontier where the 3.8 billion years of biological research and development meet the pressing challenges of human civilization.

The Biological Foundations of the Adjacent Possible

The genesis of the adjacent possible is rooted in the study of complex adaptive systems and the origins of life. Stuart Kauffman introduced the term in his seminal works "At Home in the Universe" (1995) and "Investigations" (2000) to explain how a primordial biosphere could expand its diversity through incremental steps. 

In evolutionary biology, the adjacent possible is the set of molecular species, organisms, and ecological niches that can be reached through a single mutation, a new chemical reaction, or a novel symbiotic pairing. This theory suggests that biospheres, on average, enter their adjacent possible as rapidly as they can sustain the new complexity, effectively "creating the opportunities into which they then become".

The Mathematics of Combinatorial Explosion

The scale of the adjacent possible is best illustrated through the lens of protein space.

Biological proteins are composed of linear sequences of 20 different types of amino acids. For a relatively modest protein consisting of a string of 100 amino acids, the number of possible combinations is 20^{100}, or approximately 10^{130} 

This number is so vast that it dwarfs the estimated number of hydrogen molecules in the entire observable universe.

The data indicates that life has explored only an infinitesimal fraction of the potential diversity available in protein space. 

Evolution does not jump across this vast landscape to find a "perfect" solution; it probes the immediate boundaries, actualizing the adjacent possible one sequence at a time. This incremental exploration ensures that every new biological innovation - from the first fatty acid membrane to the development of mitochondria - serves as a necessary prerequisite for the next level of complexity.

The Mechanism of the Expanding House

The most enduring metaphor for the adjacent possible is that of a house that magically expands with each door that is opened. Imagine a system beginning in a room with four doors, where each door leads to a new room that was previously inaccessible. Each time a door is opened and a new room is entered, that room contains its own set of doors, leading to further rooms.4 Thus, the act of exploring the adjacent possible actually increases the size of the adjacent possible.2

In biological terms, the invention of the cell membrane created a distinct "inside" and "outside," which then made it possible for organelles and genetic code to be contained and specialized.9 A complex organism like a bird or a flower could not have emerged directly from the "primordial soup" because the necessary intermediate "rooms"—such as vascular tissue for carrying water or chloroplasts for capturing sunlight—had not yet been unlocked.9 This sequential logic explains the trajectory from simple to complex, from isolated organisms to highly networked ecosystems.9

Innovation and the Cultural Adjacent Possible

Steven Johnson adapted Kauffman’s biological theory to explain the history of human creativity and innovation in his book "Where Good Ideas Come From".1 Johnson argues that breakthroughs are rarely the result of a single "lone genius" jumping fifty years ahead of their time; rather, they are almost always a story of one door leading to another, exploring the palace of the possible one room at a time.4 This perspective shifts the focus from sudden "Aha!" moments to the "connected mind," where new ideas are combinations of existing "spare parts".6

The Phenomenon of Multiples and Simultaneous Innovation

One of the most compelling pieces of evidence for the adjacent possible in human culture is the phenomenon of simultaneous innovation. History is replete with examples where important discoveries were made independently by different people at almost exactly the same time.4

These "multiples" occur because the background knowledge and technical components have reached a point where the next step in the adjacent possible is almost impossible not to see. 

When Johannes Gutenberg invented the printing press, the necessary components - movable type, oil-based ink, high-quality paper, and the wine press - were already in the adjacent possible of 15th-century Europe. Gutenberg’s genius lay in his ability to customize and combine these existing "spare parts" into a novel configuration.

The Remote Possible vs. the Adjacent Possible

The theory of the adjacent possible also helps explain innovation failure. A concept that is "ahead of its time" is often a concept that resides in the "remote possible" rather than the adjacent possible.4 The remote possible contains all the things that could eventually exist but lack the necessary prerequisite "doors" to be opened in the present.4

For example, the concept of high-speed, responsive online gaming was understood by developers in the early 1990s, but it remained in the remote possible because the necessary infrastructure—residential broadband, low-latency network research, and global server distribution—had not yet been actualized.4 Being "too early" to market often means confusing the adjacent possible with the remote possible, attempting to build a "roof" before the "walls" of the innovation house have been constructed.4

Biomimicry: Tapping into 3.8 Billion Years of Actualized Possibilities

Biomimicry is the practice of learning from and emulating nature’s time-tested strategies to solve human design challenges.7 From the perspective of the adjacent possible, biomimicry allows human designers to access the mature, highly efficient solutions that have already been explored and actualized by biological evolution.12 By observing how nature solves problems such as structural integrity, water management, and energy efficiency, innovators can identify "doors" that they might not have discovered through traditional human-centric engineering.10

Biological Models as Innovation Blueprints

Nature has already solved many of the problems humans currently face, using "Life’s Principles"—design lessons such as being resource-efficient, using life-friendly chemistry, and integrating development with growth. These principles act as benchmarks for sustainable and regenerative design.

The case of the Wright brothers illustrates the importance of understanding the biological adjacent possible.

Leonardo da Vinci had studied bird flight and sketched "flying machines" centuries before the Wright brothers, but the necessary technical "spare parts" - such as a high power-to-weight ratio engine - resided in the remote possible. By the early 20th century, the internal combustion engine had entered the adjacent possible. By combining this new technology with the specific observation that birds glide on air currents rather than constantly flapping, the Wright brothers were able to unlock the door to motor-operated flight.

Ecosystem Biomimicry and Systems Thinking

Modern biomimicry has shifted from focusing solely on individual products to "ecosystem biomimicry," where designs are intended to function as part of and replicate natural ecosystems. This level of innovation recognizes that in nature, every part of a system performs at least two different, meaningful functions. For instance, the Bosco Verticale in Milan—a "vertical forest" of residential towers—not only provides housing but also filters air, moderates local temperatures, and attracts birds and insects, thereby increasing urban biodiversity.16 This systemic approach is a direct exploration of the "regenerative adjacent possible," moving beyond sustainable benchmarks toward designs that "create conditions conducive to life".

Navigating the Frontier: Strategies for Exploring the Adjacent Possible

To effectively operate on the frontiers of innovation, individuals and organizations must adopt specific mindsets and practices that encourage the discovery of new "doors".6 The adjacent possible is a space of "directed experimentation" and "wandering," where the goal is to expand the range of possible next moves.6

Cultivating the Connected Mind

The ability to generate new ideas is directly linked to the diversity of one's knowledge inventory.10 "Chance favors the connected mind," meaning that breakthroughs occur when seemingly disconnected bits of information are brought into proximity.10

• Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Working with people from vastly different backgrounds—such as an engineer collaborating with an artist or a writer with a biologist—forces the brain to draw on fresh mental knowledge and see the world through different lenses.10
• Knowledge Management: Effective innovators use techniques like mind maps, digital tagging, and scrapbooks to store an inventory of "spare parts" that can be remixed when a new opportunity arises.10
• Active Observation: Training the brain to see relationships between discrete facts is a skill that can be developed through "active listening," "defamiliarization" (making the familiar strange), and spending time in diverse environments, including nature.10

Systems Thinking and the Cynefin Framework

Understanding where a system sits within the adjacent possible is crucial for timing change.5 Dave Snowden’s Cynefin framework suggests that in complex systems, progress is often non-linear and requires short-cycle feedback loops to monitor impacts.5

• Attractor Mechanisms: Systems often stabilize around certain beliefs or behaviors (attractors) that are difficult to disrupt.22 If a desirable adjacent possible is blocked by a high "energy cost of escape," the system must be "perturbed" or disrupted to allow new patterns to emerge.22
• Dispositional Mapping: Rather than mapping an idealized distant future, leaders should map the "current dispositional state" of the system and identify patterns of behavior that are adjacent to the present but in a more desirable position.22
• Incremental Adaptation: Especially in rigid environments like schools or government institutions, focusing on "small, manageable steps" rather than radical overhauls allows for a continuous cycle of adaptation that builds on each newly opened door.5

The Future of Bio-Inspired Systems

As human social and technical systems become increasingly complex, they are beginning to mirror the organic properties of life itself.9 This "complexification" suggests that the next adjacent possible for human organization may be "bio-inspired political systems".24

Political Granularity and Swarm Intelligence

Traditional top-down political structures are often too rigid to respond to the rapid diversification of human interactions.24 A bio-inspired approach would manifest as "self-organized control networks," utilizing "swarm intelligence" where individual interactions synthesize into a collective good.24 This concept of "political granularity"—shifting from coarse-grained states to fine-grained, highly networked identities—reflects the evolution of biological systems from simple cells to specialized, interconnected organs.24

Designing for a Regenerative Future

The ultimate goal of exploring the adjacent possible is to guide the next industrial revolution toward a "life-friendly future".7 This involves moving beyond "human-centric" design thinking, which often neglects the broader implications of complex ecological systems. By adopting an "evolutionary and ecological toolkit," designers can ensure that their innovations are not just better for the user, but better for the planet.

The transition to a regenerative paradigm requires a "new consciousness of the Anthropocene" - a recognition that humans are myopically caught in co-evolutionary processes with the rest of nature. 

The adjacent possible offers a path out of this myopia by providing a map of reachable, sustainable futures that are already within our grasp if we choose to open the right doors.

Conclusion: Entering the Adjacent Possible

The "adjacent possible" is not merely a metaphor for creativity; it is a fundamental law of how complex systems evolve. 

It teaches us that the future is built from the "spare parts" of the present and that our primary task as innovators, designers, and citizens is to expand our range of possible next moves. Whether we are emulating the efficient flight of a kingfisher, integrating biophilic patterns into our office buildings, or using fungi to restore a polluted riverbed, we are engaged in the sacred work of actualizing the shadow future.

The boundaries of the palace of the possible are only limited by our willingness to explore. Each new door we open reveals a suite of even more possibilities, creating a positive feedback loop of innovation and growth. In a world facing urgent ecological and social challenges, the ability to recognize and step into the adjacent possible is the most vital skill we can cultivate.

For those ready to take that first step, the Biomimicry Short Course Set is designed to be exactly that—your next door.

This program distills over a decade of research and practice into an accessible, self-paced journey through the foundational concepts of biomimicry and Life’s Principles.7 By equipping you with nature’s time-tested winning strategies, the course empowers you to confidently practice biomimicry and begin opening your own adjacent doors toward a regenerative, resilient future.7 The palace is vast, and the doors are many—it is time to start exploring.